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2.1.7 Future climate
Climate of Cleveland Bay will vary naturally as it has done in
the past. Human activities since the 19th century have,
however, superimposed a source of global climate change - the
enhanced Greenhouse effect (Houghton et al. 1996). Global
temperatures are projected to rise over the next century and early
reports from the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
third assessment due to be published in 2001 suggest that there has
already been “a discernible human influence on global climate”
(Kerr, 2000). Associated with global warming will be changes in
atmospheric circulation patterns, rainfall etc. The regional
consequences of climate change due to global warming are, however,
less reliably projected than global or hemispherical changes. Land
and sea temperatures in Cleveland Bay have been warming but there is
no evidence, as yet, for significant changes in the rainfall regime.
The biggest unknown for future climate in this area is what may
happen to ENSO which is not as yet reliably modeled in the global
climate models used to provide scenarios of future climate (Hulme
& Sheard, 1999; Walsh et al.
2000). |
